Paper book at the close
$990.18
▼ -$9.28 at the close, vs the 2026-07-29 booked close
Last quote 15:57 PDT, just before the 2026-07-30 close · 6 of 6 positions · not booked yet — the ledger picks this session up at 02:00
The rule is the $1,000 start · 2 sessions · hover any session for its balance · plotted from booked closes, so it stops at the last one
Net return (at the close)
-0.98%
since 2026-07-28 · after modelled costs
Starting balance
$1,000.00
seeded 2026-07-28
Net profit (at the close)
▼ -$9.82
realized + unrealized, after costs
Booked at last close
$999.46
2026-07-29 · the ledger, trade log and curve all use this
| Date | Balance | Realized | Unrealized | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $999.46 | · +$0.00 | ▼ -$0.54 | 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1,000.00 | · +$0.00 | · +$0.00 | 0 |
Worst first, by the closing mark. Every position is a SHORT: the book gains when the ticker falls behind SPY, so P&L and “ticker move” always carry opposite signs. At close columns are unbooked; booked is the last session the ledger has written, which is what every reported return uses.
| Ticker | At close P&L | At close move | Booked P&L | Booked move | Staked | Entered | Why flagged | Covers in | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLXYGalaxy Digital Inc. | ▼ -$5.48 | +17.9% | ▼ -$0.09 | +0.0% | $33.33 | 07-29 | z 3.5 ↗ | 5d | |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, In… | ▼ -$2.20 | +8.0% | ▼ -$0.09 | +0.0% | $33.33 | 07-29 | z 3.0 ↗ | 5d | |
| GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | ▼ -$1.53 | +6.0% | ▼ -$0.09 | +0.0% | $33.33 | 07-29 | z 19.1 ↗ | 5d | |
| ABCLAbCellera Biologics I… | ▼ -$1.39 | +5.6% | ▼ -$0.09 | +0.0% | $33.33 | 07-29 | z 3.0 ↗ | 5d | |
| AMRNAMARIN CORP PLC\UK | ▲ +$0.30 | +0.5% | ▼ -$0.09 | +0.0% | $33.33 | 07-29 | z 3.5 ↗ | 5d | |
| REPLReplimune Group, Inc. | ▲ +$0.47 | +0.0% | ▼ -$0.09 | +0.0% | $33.33 | 07-29 | z 58.5 ↗ | 5d |
No closed trades yet. Positions cover at +5 trading days, so the first exits land about a week after the first opens — and the first weeks say nothing either way: per-trade stdev is ~18%, so a red week 1 is noise.
This is not the track record. It replays the book over 2026-06-15 → 2026-07-29, data that was already collected — and the $5–$100 price gate was chosen by studying that same window. So it is scored on the period it was fitted to, and it could not have come out badly. It is here to show the mechanism works, not to predict anything.
Net return
+11.39%
over 31 sessions · in-sample · after modelled costs
Starting balance
$1,000.00
seeded 2026-06-15
Ending balance
$1,113.86
at the 2026-07-29 close
Net profit
▲ +$113.86
after slippage and borrow
Trades
242
60% win · params v1
Per trade, net
+1.68%
equal-weighted · EOD fills, modelled borrow
The rule is the $1,000 start · 31 sessions · hover any session for its balance
Look through all 242 trades it made →
Generated 2026-07-30T05:31 by
python -m sentinel.book replay · separate database
(book-backtest.db), never mixed with the live ledger.
813 alerts · 674 graded at +5d vs SPY · unflagged, benchmarked rows only · positive excess = the signal was right, and for short rows that means the ticker UNDERperformed SPY · rate and excess stay grey until ≥5 graded
| Event type | Alerts | Graded | Hit rate | Avg excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velocity spike short | 687 | 578 | 60.2% | +2.2% |
| Other 8-K | 65 | 49 | 42.9% | -2.9% |
| Exec/Board change | 48 | 35 | 57.1% | +0.9% |
| Contract/Agreement | 6 | 5 | 40.0% | -1.2% |
| Earnings/results | 4 | 4 | 50.0% | -0.1% |
| M&A | 3 | 3 | 33.3% | -0.8% |
Unflagged, benchmarked rows only. Hazards are graded short — they hit when the ticker underperforms — and are deliberately excluded from source trust, because feeding a short-side rate into a novelty trust prior would corrupt the alert path. Grey bars mean fewer than 5 graded. The tick marks a 50% coin flip.
| Source | Kind | Alerts | Graded | Hit rate | Convention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| edgar | novelty | 123 | 93 | 48.4% | long beats SPY |
| hazard | 5 | 4 | 100.0% | short underperforms SPY · not in trust | |
| stocktwits | hazard | 682 | 574 | 59.9% | short underperforms SPY · not in trust |
| usaspending | novelty | 3 | 3 | 33.3% | long beats SPY |
| Time | Kind | Event | Ticker | Move since | Score | Summary | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 16:40 | hazard | Velocity spike | MSTR | pending | 3.517 | velocity spike (z=3.5) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 16:10 | hazard | Velocity spike | BB | pending | 3.45 | velocity spike (z=3.4) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 14:10 | hazard | Velocity spike | QCOM | pending | 3.64 | velocity spike (z=3.6) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 14:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | TEM | pending | 3.308 | velocity spike (z=3.3) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 13:40 | novelty | Other 8-K | CXDO | — | 0.243 | Chris Aaker will become Chief Technology Officer at Crexendo effective August 3, 2026. | ↗ |
| 07-30 12:01 | hazard | Velocity spike | CMG | pending | 4.048 | velocity spike (z=4.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 11:51 | hazard | Velocity spike | LHX | pending | 66.665 | velocity spike (z=66.7) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 11:31 | hazard | Velocity spike | AXTI | pending | 3.634 | velocity spike (z=3.6) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 11:11 | hazard | Velocity spike | RBLX | — | 9.997 | velocity spike (z=10.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 11:11 | hazard | Velocity spike | CVNA | pending | 3.874 | velocity spike (z=3.9) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 10:02 | hazard | Velocity spike | RSI | — | 12.796 | velocity spike (z=12.8) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 09:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | AG | — | 5.908 | velocity spike (z=5.9) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 08:20 | hazard | Velocity spike | INTU | pending | 4.023 | velocity spike (z=4.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 08:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | VKTX | pending | 3.181 | velocity spike (z=3.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 06:21 | hazard | Velocity spike | ARM | pending | 4.167 | velocity spike (z=4.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 06:20 | novelty | Exec/Board change | TNC | — | 0.245 | Fay West, Tennant Company's Chief Financial Officer, will retire in Q2 2027, starting a search for her successor. | ↗ |
| 07-30 06:10 | hazard | Velocity spike | HOOD | pending | 3.281 | velocity spike (z=3.3) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 05:01 | hazard | Velocity spike | AMZN | pending | 3.015 | velocity spike (z=3.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 04:40 | novelty | Other 8-K | TVRD | pending | 0.25 | Tvardi Therapeutics selects ulcerative colitis as the initial indication for TTI-109. | ↗ |
| 07-30 04:11 | novelty | Other 8-K | HSIC | — | 0.233 | Fred Lowery, Henry Schein’s CEO, announced changes to the leadership structure and supply chain organization aiming to enhance collaboration and execution. | ↗ |
| 07-30 04:01 | hazard | Velocity spike | KD | — | 25.012 | velocity spike (z=25.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 03:20 | novelty | Other 8-K | LTCH | — | 0.228 | Latch, Inc. agreed to a settlement in a derivative litigation case. | ↗ |
| 07-30 03:11 | hazard | Velocity spike | TDOC | pending | 3.07 | velocity spike (z=3.1) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 03:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | IBRX | pending | 3.184 | velocity spike (z=3.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 02:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | STLA | pending | 3.312 | velocity spike (z=3.3) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-30 00:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | WHR | pending | 3.0 | velocity spike (z=3.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 23:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | MSFT | pending | 3.437 | velocity spike (z=3.4) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 21:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | PGY | pending | 15.222 | velocity spike (z=15.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 16:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | BB | pending | 3.03 | velocity spike (z=3.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 15:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | SNDK | pending | 3.169 | velocity spike (z=3.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 14:10 | novelty | Exec/Board change | DC | pending | 0.227 | Dr. Robert Quartermain will retire as CEO of Dakota Gold Corp. (DC) on August 18, 2026. | ↗ |
| 07-29 14:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | QCOM | pending | 3.513 | velocity spike (z=3.5) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 13:01 | hazard | Velocity spike | DIA | pending | 5.386 | velocity spike (z=5.4) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 12:01 | hazard | Velocity spike | F | pending | 4.781 | velocity spike (z=4.8) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 10:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | ADBE | new | 3.477 | velocity spike (z=3.5) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 10:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | KLAC | new | 3.229 | velocity spike (z=3.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 09:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | GLXY | new | 3.482 | velocity spike (z=3.5) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 08:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | BE | new | 3.401 | velocity spike (z=3.4) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 07:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | STX | new | 3.187 | velocity spike (z=3.2) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 07:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | ABCL | new | 3.037 | velocity spike (z=3.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 06:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | AMRN | new | 3.461 | velocity spike (z=3.5) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 06:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | GFS | new | 19.126 | velocity spike (z=19.1) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 03:50 | novelty | Exec/Board change | DT | new | 0.239 | Chandu Thota, with AI and cloud expertise from Google and Microsoft, joins Dynatrace's Board of Directors to advise on AI and technology strategy. | ↗ |
| 07-29 03:10 | novelty | Other 8-K | IRHO | new | 0.23 | ELECTRA AI contributed to an insights paper on battery storage from Iron Horse Acquisition II Corp.'s Volta Foundation committee. | ↗ |
| 07-29 03:10 | novelty | Other 8-K | CRTO | new | 0.229 | Criteo S.A. is a public company limited by shares headquartered in Luxembourg. | ↗ |
| 07-29 03:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | SKHY | new | 3.044 | velocity spike (z=3.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-29 02:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | SOFI | new | 3.014 | velocity spike (z=3.0) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-28 16:00 | hazard | Velocity spike | TER | new | 8.114 | velocity spike (z=8.1) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-28 15:10 | hazard | Velocity spike | REPL | new | 58.469 | velocity spike (z=58.5) with no primary source in 6h — possible pump | ↗ |
| 07-28 14:30 | novelty | Other 8-K | FIRY | new | 0.271 | Firy Inc. won a post-trial court order against Papaya Gaming, ordering Papaya to pay $719 million in disgorged profits and attorney's fees. | ↗ |
Items in store
33,502
55% below the novelty floor (0.25)
Signal alerts today
0
of 5 daily cap · 0 hazards (uncapped)
Heartbeat
OK
last cycle 2026-07-31T00:50:29+00:00 (3 min ago)
1058 items stored · last 24h · peak 211/h · 2026-07-30T01:00 → 2026-07-31T00:00 UTC
7013 cycles since 2024-06-17 · 488723 seen → 32862 stored, 5544 dupes, 450317 unlinked
| Source | Runs | Fails | Seen | Stored | Dupes | Unlinked | Alerts | Stored share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stocktwits | 7009 | 0 | 20759 | 18426 | 2333 | 0 | 0 | |
| edgar | 7013 | 0 | 33353 | 7009 | 532 | 25812 | 123 | |
| prnewswire | 7013 | 0 | 119900 | 3575 | 220 | 116105 | 0 | |
| globenewswire | 7013 | 0 | 114233 | 2113 | 9 | 112111 | 0 | |
| 7009 | 0 | 3951 | 1501 | 2450 | 0 | 0 | ||
| congress | 7013 | 5 | 143 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| usaspending | 7013 | 24 | 196384 | 95 | 0 | 196289 | 3 | |
| all sources | 7013 | 29 | 488723 | 32862 | 5544 | 450317 | 126 |